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Sorry to post bad news but it's my daughter and I want to get as many prayers as possible.
She's not even two and is undergoing her second surgery in an attempt to fight off Melanoma.
I typically don't bother people with things like this but it's for my daughter. If it was for me, I wouldn't even bother.
As you can guess, I'm a mess. She's Stage IIIc currently and it could go either way.
Thanks in advance for your prayers.
Please spread the word.
EDIT: If you could reply here so I know how many people are pulling for her....even if you don't pray...that will help.
How this started: She was born with a type of birth mark on her back called a nevus. At her age the doctors told us it's more of a cosmetic decision to have it removed. I listened. They said that in older kids there is a potential for cancer but not in her age group....very rare. They advised that we wait until she was 2 years old to remove it if we decided to go that route, so we waited. Little did I know that it would turn into this. My advice is to remove any threat to your child even if there is a .000000000000000000000000000000000000001% risk...it's never worth it. Lesson #1, I wish I would have been more vain and said that "thing" has to go immediately. Well, all was going fine then one day we noticed that an area of the nevus started to change. We made an appointment at the specialists and it took a while to get her in. No one thought it was a threat but they wanted to do tests. We took her in and they took a piece and sent it to the lab. MISTAKE/LESSON #2...if there is any threat to your child...tell the doctors NOT to take a little piece and examine it...tell them to TAKE THE ENTIRE THING then do what they need to do, not leave pieces behind that could yield further issues. If they would have taken the entire thing out, the risk would have been greatly reduced. The longer you leave cancer cells in your body the worse it can become. After the tests came back as positive for cancer they immediately scheduled the operation to have it and a significant area around it removed for further testing. That happened, the rest of it went off to a lab and the perimeter came back with no cancerous cells. They also took out a few lymph nodes but those came back positive for cancer cells. As soon as those results came back she went back in for her second surgery.
Update: 09/14/2008. People have been asking me so I'm posting an update. She's undergone two surgeries. The second was to remove additional areas of potential threat and also all the lymph nodes under each arm. The cancer could have spread to these lymph nodes and they had to remove them in case it was contained there. I'm praying it was. As for how she's doing now, she has 4 drain tubes to drain fluids from her body while she recovers. One under each arm and two on her back. As the doctors explained, after surgery there are voids where the body tries to fill with fluid and they need to keep that fluid from settling. She had a couple of bad days with pain from these tubes that are going into her body but the past couple of days she's been doing wonderful. We have to stay on top of her to ensure she doesn't hurt herself. Right now the lymph nodes that were removed have been sent off for further testing and we should have results back sometime next week. She also starts cancer treatments next week in an attempt to cut off or delay any further manifestations in her little body.
Update: 09/17/08. We just got back from the doctor. Got the 4 drain tubes and "bulbs" removed so now she can move more freely and with less supervision. I can also go back to a normal sleep routine since I had to sleep with one eye open to ensure she didn't tangle herself with the plastic tubes when she turned in bed during the night. Big relief here. She also had her CT scan of the brain. We had the surgeon pull the file up as a favor and he said it looked okay BUT that he was not a neurologist nor was the scan officially reviewed yet so we continue to pray and soon we start the aggressive therapy...Interferon Alpha2b. Many side effects but nothing worse than cancer spreading so it's worth the ride for all involved. We now wait for the official results to get back to us and the results of all the lymph nodes that were removed in the second operation. Thank you all and keep praying for her no matter the faith you believe in and if you don't believe in any God please think positive thoughts for my little girl. I'm not too proud to beg when it comes to my child.
Update: 09/17/08 #2. Just got an e-mail from a doctor at the hospital. The results from the lymph node tests came back all negative and the nodes removed during the second operation had no cancer. This is great news for me and my family because statistically it puts the odds back in her favor. We're still moving forward with periodic scans of all her major organs and the cancer treatment, which we're starting next week. Keep praying for her people and thank you....thank you.....thank you!!!
Update: 09/23/08. All is positive but will be getting a little bad for her for the next year. She starts Interferon therapy on Monday. It's going to be an interesting year. Again, thank you all for your continued support. You have no idea how much it helps.
Update: 10/11/08. Thank you all for your continued support. She's not finished her first 2 of 52 week treatment. The first 4 weeks are the worst but she's actually doing extremely well. The only side effects she's demonstrated were high fever the first two days of treatment which we quickly got under control with a Motrin and Tylenol routine and her being more tired because we have to wake up extra early to be at the hospital every single day for her treatment. The first 4 weeks we have to be at the hospital anywhere from 3-7 hours for her treatments. She's doing extremely well and i'm still praying that this treatment is not necessary and that the cancer never made it past her lymph nodes into her body. This treatment doesn't really cure anything...it just prolonges the time before relapse. If the lymph nodes contained it then we're good. After the initial 4 weeks, we start giving her injections three times weekly at the house. This is going to be easier on her as she'll be able to start sleeping in again and taking her naps on time. Her eating habits are a little off as well because the treatments give you a bad taste in your mouth. Luckily for us, we're fortunate enough to be able to cook up a choice of dishes for her keeping her eating. She's gotten picky about what she eats but we're giving her enough choices to keep her eating. We're trying to avoid avoid weight loss which is one side effect but it's typically a result of patience not wanting to eat because food just doesn't taste as good. Kids at this age don't know to eat because they have to until they are starving when stuff like this happens...unless daddy feeds them some of the best Fajita's in town or a savory steak. We have two more weeks of the "hard" treatment and then it eases up on her body a bit because the dosage is reduced for the remaining 11 months.
Update: 10/25/08. Thank you all yet again for your continued support. We've finished the month long daily treatments of heavy interferon dosage. She actually had two small side effects out of all the scary stuff and although we still have 11 more months of treatments that could yield some nasty side effects, she pulled through the heavy part like a champ. Of the 30 days she had 2 with fever which we brought under immediate control using Tylenol and Motrin and then she would get a little flush in the face a few other days but a hydration solution through the portacath in her chest fixed that right away. We had some long days at the hospital and i'm thankful that my customers are understanding. It's been tough but worth the fight and the entire family remains strong. Little Alessandra seems to be the strongest of the bunch, LOL. The grandmothers missed a lot of work because we didn't want to take Alessandra's little brother to the hospital for the long days so they stayed at the house until we returned from her treatments then they shot off to work. Friday was the last day of heavy treatments and now we start treating her at home by giving her three shots a week. We still have to monitor her for side effects, continue to take her in for regular scans of her organs to see if cancer pops up anywhere, and watch her skin to see if there are ANY changes. All in all a small price to pay if the cancer never manifests itself again. I think we've made a decision to remove every mole on her body once she goes back in for the, I hope to God, final surgery. The melanoma can manifest itself in moles much easier than in other areas of the skin and considering what she's already been through, I'm not leaving ANYTHING to chance. Some may think I'm crazy and this may be going too far but you wouldn't understand until you went through this. The odds of her having to go through this were astronomical but it happened. I'm not leaving it to chance and as another member in the forum reminded me, drastic times call for drastic measures. Again, thank you all and I will continue to keep the thread updated for those interested in our fight.
Thank you all for your continued support. She's tough and fighting it with a strength that is incredible for someone her age. BTW, she's now officially 2 years old.
Update: 11/25/08. Yesterday/Monday we took her to the hospital for a check up. Had ultra sounds done on the areas where they removed the lymph nodes and a chest x-ray. Thank God nothing was present. All tests came out clean and we're moving forward to enjoy our Thanksgiving Holidays. One thing we've taught Alessandra to do was pray. She enjoys it and now is old enough to join in and even ask us to pray with her. She looks like a little angel when praying, putting her hands together and bowing her little head while we all pray together. Thank you all for your continued prayers. Keep my little daughter in your prayers, positive thoughts, etc. it's working. She's a very strong little girl and is making it through all the shots and scans and pokes of her little body. No child should ever have to go through this but if they do they should with a loving family and as many prayers as possible. Thank you all for doing your part in helping us with this fight. Again, no matter your religion thank you in advance for your prayers. I have word that people all over the planet are praying for my little girl. Hundreds of churches of all religions and literally thousands (maybe tens of thousands) of people in many different countries are praying. Thanks again!
Update: 12/17/08. Last Saturday we had to take the little one into the emergency room. She had something swelling bad where the scar is from her last surgery. They did an ultra sound and found fluid and also some mass. Thursday/tomorrow we're schedule for her third operation. They want to go in and remove this immediately. They will run tests and determine if it's a reoccurance of her cancer or just the way that area healed. I'm praying that it's not cancer and that it just healed weird and caused the swelling. Thanks again everyone for your continued support.
Update: 12/28/08. The operation was good and she was out the same day. The results came back and it was more cancer. Not good. Over the holiday weekend we noticed another lump swelling on her back. It's most likely more cancer. On Monday we go in for entire body scans CT and PET. I'm praying and hoping to God that this is only isolated in those areas and once removed it's over with and that it's not in a major organ. Just thinking about it is the most painful thing I've ever experienced. Thank you all for your continued support and prayers. She needs that more than anything right now. We'll most likely be scheduling another operation to go in and remove the new lump from her back this week. Will make it her 5th operation within a 12 month period. All I can say is I wish it was me.
Update: 01/02/09. The CT came back clean but the PET found another tumor in addition to the one we visually detected. Doctors ordered an Ultrasound which initially confused me. I figured why an Ultrasound when we already did a CT and PET? Well, i'm glad we did. We noticed that the lump that was visually detected was actually two very close together. The Ultrasound gave everyone a more clear picture. I'm learning a lot more about this disease and will one day try to setup a website to help others. There is a lot of knowledge that i've gained that I haven't read about on any other website and all the sites basically tell you the same stuff over and over. It's good info but it's not good for when you're already in the fight. You need a new set of rules and data when battling this monster and maybe one day i can put it up to help others...one day after my daughter is done fighting and maybe she can even help me. Meanwhile, I sit at the hospital for the operation. They were initially going to go in to do "clean up" from the previous operation and remove the three additional tumors found. I spoke to the surgeon and told him I wanted to do more. I wanted to remove more of the "left over" lymph "channels" to avoid a reoccurance. I let him know that the disease is betting more aggressive and I wanted to do the same. He immediately called in the plastic surgeon that he had on standby and jumped right on the idea after consulting with another oncologist. She's now in there and it might be another 4-5 hours before she's done. No matter how many times I've been through this with her, I can never avoid crying when they take her from my arms and into the operating room. I just sit and wait now and pray all is going well and that this might be the last operation she'll ever have to endure. One thing I know for sure, this family will be unstoppable when we win this fight because the strength gained from this battle is not going to be taken for granted.
Now...i've gotten a lot of PM's offering help from users that have gone through cancer, from doctors that use the forum, from users who knew someone with cancer and even those just extending their best wishes but i was never really too sure what kind of help I could get for my daughter but now I know one thing that can help us greatly. Please continue your prayers...Muslim, Christian, Islam, whatever....please pray for Alessandra. Second, I know that best way to fight this is early detection so I ask the doctors and people that have been through this and those that know anything....help me by letting me know of any cutting edge medical scanning technology, etc. The CT and PET and Ultrasound are all great tools. There are also the 3D and even 4D Ultrasounds. I want to hear from you guys because I'm about to set appointments to get her entire body scanned with an Ultrasound. I know this will only catch stuff close to the surface and doesn't work well detecting tumors deep in her body, if i am understanding all of this correctly and please note that I haven't had much time to research it fully yet. For anyone out there that knows anything about this stuff, I have the following questions:
- Is there anything more advanced and higher resolution than an Ultrasound? From talking to the doctors it seems the Ultrasound can detect smaller "objects" than a CT or PET would be able to and it seems like the Ultrasound had a more "clear" view of the items. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
- Are there any other technologies that can be used to scan for cancer instances that a PET/CT/Ultrasound might miss?
- Has anyone heard of any other ways of detecting melanoma cancer once it's in the lymph nodes and even in the body once it gets past the lymph nodes? Other than scanning with the PET/CT/Ultrasound and waiting for a tumor to be large enough to show up?
- Any chemical detection methods available? I read that some cancer produces certain protein markers that can be detected very early via blood tests. Does anyone know of something similar for melanoma?
- The Interferon treatments she's undergoing might or might not be working. Has anyone heard of any available treatment for someone her age when Interferon doesn't work for melanoma cancer? I heard the Mayo clinic has alternate treatments but when I called the doctor wouldn't talk to me and insisted I go see them. All I wanted to know were questions to plan my trip accordingly like: Can it be administered with Interferon? If not, how long after the Interferon treatment finishes can the alternate treatment begin? What are some side effects, if any, of the alternate treatment? How long would the alternate treatment last for? All of these questions were so I knew what to expect, how to plan for it and how long we would be undergoing treatment. What really pissed me off is that the doctor wouldn't even answer questions through her assistant. Pretty damn petty and business like when a little girl's life might be at risk here. I know there might be protocol but hell, sometimes protocol needs to be circumvented when it's petty and someone's life is at risk...give me a ****ing break.
So if anyone has any knowledge they would like to share please do so in reply within the thread. Your response might help someone else that hasn't had time to post something like this or prefers to be more private than I'm being.
Thank you all again for your support and for any help you may give here for my daughter and for anyone else going through this.
Update: 04.20.09. The fight against the cancer continues. My daughter is hanging in there. She currently has three-four tumors. One was removed this week for a special trial that we've enrolled her in. She's undergone Interferon and Interlukin-2 treatments. I feel that the Interlukin-2 had an effect on the cancer and we're going to revisit it but right now it's time for more aggressive treatments. A friend of the family has put up a website that's not 100% done. I see AstainHellBring posted it and I thank him for that. I'm going to post more details there and what we've gone through. I hope this new site not only helps my family but also other families going through the same thing. There is so much miscommunication and things they dont' tell you that I want to communicate, it's crazy. Things that you need to prepare for but either they are affraid to tell you or they just don't know. Thank you all for your continued support for my daughter. I'll post more info later.
Can't post updates here...message too long so posting to the end of the thread again.
sorry to hear that
u have her in our prayers!
GOD BLESS!
You have my prayers and sympathies. Wishing your family nothing but absolutely the best and success.
good luck man i hope for the best
Oh man, that's terrible to have your child sick like that. We are praying for her and your family.
Best of luck that they are able to take care of this problem
Do not worry, we are with you and your daughter in our prayers.
I wish you much good luck
God Bless and our prayers go to her ..
horrible thing to have to go through, my best wishes to you and yours.
G,
Your request is circulating now throughout Ohio. Our prayers and support are with you and your family. Keep us posted.
Raskell
i got a 3 year old daughter myself i can imagine what your going thru, i'm not a religious guy but i'll do whatever i can to support her and your family, we're all thinking about her, i hope she get's well soon !
my best wishes and prayers for her speedy recovery!
May God bless her!!
Let us hope & pray for the best for your daughter, and may God bless her with the strength to overcome this.
my best wishes for your duaghter... i wil pray... GOD bless...
I don't have words to express myself, prayers of me and my complete family are with your daughter.
My best wishes for your daughter and your family. I really hope she will recover quickly
You have my prayers for her. Have faith.
Adil
I wish you and your family all the best and will pray for your little girl to have a full recovery.
I am not a religious person, but as a recent father I am thinking of you and your daughter.
I wish her and all your family all the best.
@MikeChannon, very nice words.
Dave
I'm going to add this thread to my sig to help get the word out and to get the max amount of thoughts and prayers possible.
With a forum like xda where members are from all around the globe, I'd like to see who will help by participating in this.
For more info: http://www.earthhour.org/home/
The idea is that this Saturday, for one hour, you turn all your lights out to help against global warming. At least that's my take on it.
Saturday, March 28th 20:30-21:30 local time
This year, Earth Hour has been transformed into the world’s first global election, between Earth and global warming.
For the first time in history, people of all ages, nationalities, race and background have the opportunity to use their light switch as their vote – Switching off your lights is a vote for Earth, or leaving them on is a vote for global warming. WWF are urging the world to VOTE EARTH and reach the target of 1 billion votes, which will be presented to world leaders at the Global Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009.
This meeting will determine official government policies to take action against global warming, which will replace the Kyoto Protocol. It is the chance for the people of the world to make their voice heard.
Earth Hour began in Sydney in 2007, when 2.2 million homes and businesses switched off their lights for one hour. In 2008 the message had grown into a global sustainability movement, with 50 million people switching off their lights. Global landmarks such as the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, Rome’s Colosseum, the Sydney Opera House and the Coca Cola billboard in Times Square all stood in darkness.
In 2009, Earth Hour is being taken to the next level, with the goal of 1 billion people switching off their lights as part of a global vote. Unlike any election in history, it is not about what country you’re from, but instead, what planet you’re from. VOTE EARTH is a global call to action for every individual, every business, and every community. A call to stand up and take control over the future of our planet. Over 74 countries and territories have pledged their support to VOTE EARTH during Earth Hour 2009, and this number is growing everyday.
We all have a vote, and every single vote counts. Together we can take control of the future of our planet, for future generations.
VOTE EARTH by simply switching off your lights for one hour, and join the world for Earth Hour.
Saturday, March 28, 8:30-9:30pm.
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Great idea! let´s support!
Count me in TheChampJT!!
Hope can this be a sticky!
Already sent to all my contacts
Cheers,
I do not support. Global warming is a farce. Twenty years from now polar bears will be asking us to turn the heat up.
Not a chance from me. Because I'm sceptical and prefer to make up my own mind than simply believe something anyone can say without proof, and then make you out to be bad if you don't believe it. I'll be behaving as I normally do - one energy efficient light bulb on in whichever room I'm in only, unless I'm not home.
This is the best article I have found to explain why I dislike anything to do with supposed global warming.
' In the first Earth Day in 1970, UC Davis’s Kenneth Watt said, “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder in 1990, but eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” '
I would love to quote from it more but I hope that some 'believers' will actually read it and not simply think the standard '...you're evil because you don't care...etc' which is not the point or correct.
Ehh.. My lights stay out most of the time anyway.. Course, my computers stay running 24/7/365.25...so I think that's the offset.. As for turning them off for earth hour, I would, but I'm probably gonna be at work, and I'm afraid that half of them wont boot back up when I get home.. LMFAO!!
lets see..... Its my opinion... ok?...
if we shut off all our light one hour we can help our earth?
jejeje what about the electrical generator plants!!!! that monsters must BE!!!! the ones that needs to be shutdown just a few days... cause in 1 hour the heat will not cease all the power on itselfs... please dont be so close mind thing on global you all say OH yeah help the earth global help and bla bla bla... wel thionk in big causes!... and please... it better that has other mind on recycling or something more take care of trees... water or something more not on an hour of shutting down.
BTW... I will do it.. maybe my account comes a little cheap because of that hour without lights up...
lol! I think the idea behind is that if enough people do participate in this, then certain organizations will see that people do want help the cause. They say the outcome of this will determine the future actions taken.
Global warming? global colding?
We really don´t know for sure what will happens in the future...
What I can see on this thread request is a POSITIVE asking to get toghether and achieve something that may or may not help, but the simply idea of doing something in group with a cause (Even if the cause is only getting a lower energy monthly acoount) makes me want to get in, and I don´t think this will harm the Earth or anybody...
I respect all opinions, we should do the same regarding this thread that is simply asking to support, if not also is ok.
But what is true is that we have to do something to help Earth!!!
Lights off, recycling, permaculture, etc... do whatever you believe in to help but do it!!
Good day to all,
orb3000 said:
we have to do something to help Earth!!!
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Really? Us puny humans can help Earth? She has survived countless asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, solar flares, and she never got any help from us in the past. We are not hurting Earth, we are only trashing it up.
We need to be saving our own asses...... from ourselves.
Yes my whole family is participating in it, I think it's the least people can do to save the environment.
Our local city government even made a huge poster banner for this.
gypsygirl13 said:
Yes my whole family is participating in it, I think it's the least people can do to save the environment.
Our local city government even made a huge poster banner for this.
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oOo.. A chicka that's not cmonex.. *immitates Joey from Friends* how YOU doin? *wink*
orb3000 said:
we have to do something to help Earth!!!
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Why? & why does Earth need help?
Lights off, recycling, permaculture, etc... do whatever you believe in to help but do it!!
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Belief, like religion, no proof/evidence or even reasoning is required. Then, the 'non believers' get critisized.
Am I the only one who feels that the weather shouldn't hit two different etxremes in one week? About two weeks ago, it snowed on a Saturday, then was almost 70 the following Thursday. You honestly can't tell we aren't to blame for such odd weather patterns.
TheChampJT said:
Am I the only one who feels that the weather shouldn't hit two different etxremes in one week? About two weeks ago, it snowed on a Saturday, then was almost 70 the following Thursday. You honestly can't tell we aren't to blame for such odd weather patterns.
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I doubt that you're the only person who thinks that way but, I suspect that if you, or anyone else had the inclination to check the history records, that it would not be unusual.
Also I find it odd that people think that the weather should or shouldn't behave in a certain way. As mentioned in the article I linked to on the first page, we (human beings) have not yet managed to make a climate model accurately simulate changes in the past. We certainly haven't managed to make anything which can predict anything accurately more than a few hours into the future, after which, things degenerate into vague generalities. When did you last see a forcast which predicted the weather to be a certain stae at an exact time eg 'starts to rain at 12:30 stops at 13:50'? It just doesn't happen, and I find it ridiculous & arrogant for people to expect it to behave in a certain way.
Also weather and climate are not the same thing, climate deals with averages over long periods of time, so to different types of weather in a short space of time are irrelevant to the longer term climate.
bbobeckyj said:
I doubt that you're the only person who thinks that way but, I suspect that if you, or anyone else had the inclination to check the history records, that it would not be unusual.
Also I find it odd that people think that the weather should or shouldn't behave in a certain way. As mentioned in the article I linked to on the first page, we (human beings) have not yet managed to make a climate model accurately simulate changes in the past. We certainly haven't managed to make anything which can predict anything accurately more than a few hours into the future, after which, things degenerate into vague generalities. When did you last see a forcast which predicted the weather to be a certain stae at an exact time eg 'starts to rain at 12:30 stops at 13:50'? It just doesn't happen, and I find it ridiculous & arrogant for people to expect it to behave in a certain way.
Also weather and climate are not the same thing, climate deals with averages over long periods of time, so to different types of weather in a short space of time are irrelevant to the longer term climate.
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I understand your point a bit, but calling the exact time rain will start/stop is nowhere near the fact that the weather isn't close to the usuals. I never recall a time in my life where the temp has jumped almost 50 degrees within a week, not even, 5 days. Either way, like I said before, there is a lot we do everyday that we don't think twice about that constantly has an affect on the world. I'm certainly not trying to start some sort of revolution here, but it amazes me that so many are more concerned with how much they own or what they own. Someday none of it may ever matter.
Great point!
TheChampJT said:
I understand your point a bit, but calling the exact time rain will start/stop is nowhere near the fact that the weather isn't close to the usuals. I never recall a time in my life where the temp has jumped almost 50 degrees within a week, not even, 5 days. Either way, like I said before, there is a lot we do everyday that we don't think twice about that constantly has an affect on the world. I'm certainly not trying to start some sort of revolution here, but it amazes me that so many are more concerned with how much they own or what they own. Someday none of it may ever matter.
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Agree mate
same here, last week we were with a foggy rainy days with delicious 12 degrees celcius and in less than 6 days we are at 32!!
Yes there is some changes with climate if compared with past years
Call it global warming or any name but the fact is that weather is changing a lot...
orb3000 said:
Agree mate
same here, last week we were with a foggy rainy days with delicious 12 degrees celcius and in less than 6 days we are at 32!!
Yes there is some changes with climate if compared with past years
Call it global warming or any name but the fact is that weather is changing a lot...
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I agree too. Here in California, we've been having a drought for the last 3 years and we'll probably have to start water rationing eventually, however in Fargo, North Dakota at this very moment, people are racing to fill about 2 Million sand bags to protect themselves from the expected 40 foot (12 Meter) crest in the river. It hasn't reached 40 foot crest since 1897! At least to me, something certainly isn't right here... So count me in for "election".
Dave
You guys are all as mad as drunk clowns on pogo sticks!
3 of you say how odd the weather is because it's so variable, obviously it's common because you all xperience it.
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?_PROGRAM=prog.climsite.sas&_SERVICE=default&id=356883
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?_PROGRAM=prog.climsite.sas&_SERVICE=default&id=356883
I used google and found the site above, I did it on my phone so detail is hard to see but there are clearly large temerature variables between days.
@TheChampJT, I think you don't understand my point at all. No one can predict weather accurately for more than a few hours, yet you claim that it should or shouldn't behave in a certain way. I have provided evidence that your experience is normal, you just don't remember it. As to people caring about possessions etc, why shouldn't they? Do you live in a commune? Are you a communist? It's natural.
@Dave, all I can say is wow! 112 years since the last similar event! on a world aged in the billions! 112 years is a massively impressive number isn't it?
If anything (& I don't claim to know the local geography) it's more affected by urbanisation (man made efficient drainage vs old seeping slowly through the earth) than by climate change.
Also how far apart are cali & n.Dakota? I don't get surprised if it's sunny in England & raining in Italy, why would I?
My last point in this message - Even if the climate is changing, so what? Why should I worry or care? It's been very different before, and it will again. It's simply human arrogance and self importance which makes us think we are responsible and or need to do something about it
bbobeckyj said:
You guys are all as mad as drunk clowns on pogo sticks!
My last point in this message - Even if the climate is changing, so what? Why should I worry or care? It's been very different before, and it will again. It's simply human arrogance and self importance which makes us think we are responsible and or need to do something about it
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Very well said my friend. Humans can be so ignorant when making assessments based on the few short decades we each live on this Earth. But you can't argue with those kinds of people. They are going t believe what they want to believe.
I will say this; there is no doubt in my mind human activity affects the world's climate, but ALL life's activity affects the climate. The so called "erratic" weather is NORMAL. It has been that way for eons of time and there is nothing you can do about it.
Now I'm all for alternative and renewable energy, but only because fossil fuels are becoming harder to find, and or may be monopolized by some countries because of their geographic resources. Please don't give me this "We need to save the Earth" crap. She can recover from anything we can throw at her.
bbobeckyj said:
You guys are all as mad as drunk clowns on pogo sticks!
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All points here are valid as we have the free of think what we want!
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*Warning!* Contains content that you may not agree with!
I was going through my hard drive and found this cached from Gizmodo, about a year ago. Mature responses only, please! And remember, you can talk to people about your worries, you really can.
Bill Zeller * 2011
I have the urge to declare my sanity and justify my actions, but I assume I'll never be able to convince anyone that this was the right decision. Maybe it's true that anyone who does this is insane by definition, but I can at least explain my reasoning. I considered not writing any of this because of how personal it is, but I like tying up loose ends and don't want people to wonder why I did this. Since I've never spoken to anyone about what happened to me, people would likely draw the wrong conclusions.
My first memories as a child are of being raped, repeatedly. This has affected every aspect of my life. This darkness, which is the only way I can describe it, has followed me like a fog, but at times intensified and overwhelmed me, usually triggered by a distinct situation. In kindergarten I couldn't use the bathroom and would stand petrified whenever I needed to, which started a trend of awkward and unexplained social behavior. The damage that was done to my body still prevents me from using the bathroom normally, but now it's less of a physical impediment than a daily reminder of what was done to me.
This darkness followed me as I grew up. I remember spending hours playing with legos, having my world consist of me and a box of cold, plastic blocks. Just waiting for everything to end. It's the same thing I do now, but instead of legos it's surfing the web or reading or listening to a baseball game. Most of my life has been spent feeling dead inside, waiting for my body to catch up.
At times growing up I would feel inconsolable rage, but I never connected this to what happened until puberty. I was able to keep the darkness at bay for a few hours at a time by doing things that required intense concentration, but it would always come back. Programming appealed to me for this reason. I was never particularly fond of computers or mathematically inclined, but the temporary peace it would provide was like a drug. But the darkness always returned and built up something like a tolerance, because programming has become less and less of a refuge.
The darkness is with me nearly every time I wake up. I feel like a grime is covering me. I feel like I'm trapped in a contimated body that no amount of washing will clean. Whenever I think about what happened I feel manic and itchy and can't concentrate on anything else. It manifests itself in hours of eating or staying up for days at a time or sleeping for sixteen hours straight or week long programming binges or constantly going to the gym. I'm exhausted from feeling like this every hour of every day.
Three to four nights a week I have nightmares about what happened. It makes me avoid sleep and constantly tired, because sleeping with what feels like hours of nightmares is not restful. I wake up sweaty and furious. I'm reminded every morning of what was done to me and the control it has over my life.
I've never been able to stop thinking about what happened to me and this hampered my social interactions. I would be angry and lost in thought and then be interrupted by someone saying "Hi" or making small talk, unable to understand why I seemed cold and distant. I walked around, viewing the outside world from a distant portal behind my eyes, unable to perform normal human niceties. I wondered what it would be like to take to other people without what happened constantly on my mind, and I wondered if other people had similar experiences that they were better able to mask.
Alcohol was also something that let me escape the darkness. It would always find me later, though, and it was always angry that I managed to escape and it made me pay. Many of the irresponsible things I did were the result of the darkness. Obviously I'm responsible for every decision and action, including this one, but there are reasons why things happen the way they do.
Alcohol and other drugs provided a way to ignore the realities of my situation. It was easy to spend the night drinking and forget that I had no future to look forward to. I never liked what alcohol did to me, but it was better than facing my existence honestly. I haven't touched alcohol or any other drug in over seven months (and no drugs or alcohol will be involved when I do this) and this has forced me to evaluate my life in an honest and clear way. There's no future here. The darkness will always be with me.
I used to think if I solved some problem or achieved some goal, maybe he would leave. It was comforting to identify tangible issues as the source of my problems instead of something that I'll never be able to change. I thought that if I got into to a good college, or a good grad school, or lost weight, or went to the gym nearly every day for a year, or created programs that millions of people used, or spent a summer or California or New York or published papers that I was proud of, then maybe I would feel some peace and not be constantly haunted and unhappy. But nothing I did made a dent in how depressed I was on a daily basis and nothing was in any way fulfilling. I'm not sure why I ever thought that would change anything.
I didn't realize how deep a hold he had on me and my life until my first relationship. I stupidly assumed that no matter how the darkness affected me personally, my romantic relationships would somehow be separated and protected. Growing up I viewed my future relationships as a possible escape from this thing that haunts me every day, but I began to realize how entangled it was with every aspect of my life and how it is never going to release me. Instead of being an escape, relationships and romantic contact with other people only intensified everything about him that I couldn't stand. I will never be able to have a relationship in which he is not the focus, affecting every aspect of my romantic interactions.
Relationships always started out fine and I'd be able to ignore him for a few weeks. But as we got closer emotionally the darkness would return and every night it'd be me, her and the darkness in a black and gruesome threesome. He would surround me and penetrate me and the more we did the more intense it became. It made me hate being touched, because as long as we were separated I could view her like an outsider viewing something good and kind and untainted. Once we touched, the darkness would envelope her too and take her over and the evil inside me would surround her. I always felt like I was infecting anyone I was with.
Relationships didn't work. No one I dated was the right match, and I thought that maybe if I found the right person it would overwhelm him. Part of me knew that finding the right person wouldn't help, so I became interested in girls who obviously had no interest in me. For a while I thought I was gay. I convinced myself that it wasn't the darkness at all, but rather my orientation, because this would give me control over why things didn't feel "right". The fact that the darkness affected sexual matters most intensely made this idea make some sense and I convinced myself of this for a number of years, starting in college after my first relationship ended. I told people I was gay (at Trinity, not at Princeton), even though I wasn't attracted to men and kept finding myself interested in girls. Because if being gay wasn't the answer, then what was? People thought I was avoiding my orientation, but I was actually avoiding the truth, which is that while I'm straight, I will never be content with anyone. I know now that the darkness will never leave.
Last spring I met someone who was unlike anyone else I'd ever met. Someone who showed me just how well two people could get along and how much I could care about another human being. Someone I know I could be with and love for the rest of my life, if I weren't so ****ed up. Amazingly, she liked me. She liked the shell of the man the darkness had left behind. But it didn't matter because I couldn't be alone with her. It was never just the two of us, it was always the three of us: her, me and the darkness. The closer we got, the more intensely I'd feel the darkness, like some evil mirror of my emotions. All the closeness we had and I loved was complemented by agony that I couldn't stand, from him. I realized that I would never be able to give her, or anyone, all of me or only me. She could never have me without the darkness and evil inside me. I could never have just her, without the darkness being a part of all of our interactions. I will never be able to be at peace or content or in a healthy relationship. I realized the futility of the romantic part of my life. If I had never met her, I would have realized this as soon as I met someone else who I meshed similarly well with. It's likely that things wouldn't have worked out with her and we would have broken up (with our relationship ending, like the majority of relationships do) even if I didn't have this problem, since we only dated for a short time. But I will face exactly the same problems with the darkness with anyone else. Despite my hopes, love and compatability is not enough. Nothing is enough. There's no way I can fix this or even push the darkness down far enough to make a relationship or any type of intimacy feasible.
So I watched as things fell apart between us. I had put an explicit time limit on our relationship, since I knew it couldn't last because of the darkness and didn't want to hold her back, and this caused a variety of problems. She was put in an unnatural situation that she never should have been a part of. It must have been very hard for her, not knowing what was actually going on with me, but this is not something I've ever been able to talk about with anyone. Losing her was very hard for me as well. Not because of her (I got over our relationship relatively quickly), but because of the realization that I would never have another relationship and because it signified the last true, exclusive personal connection I could ever have. This wasn't apparent to other people, because I could never talk about the real reasons for my sadness. I was very sad in the summer and fall, but it was not because of her, it was because I will never escape the darkness with anyone. She was so loving and kind to me and gave me everything I could have asked for under the circumstances. I'll never forget how much happiness she brought me in those briefs moments when I could ignore the darkness. I had originally planned to kill myself last winter but never got around to it. (Parts of this letter were written over a year ago, other parts days before doing this.) It was wrong of me to involve myself in her life if this were a possibility and I should have just left her alone, even though we only dated for a few months and things ended a long time ago. She's just one more person in a long list of people I've hurt.
I could spend pages talking about the other relationships I've had that were ruined because of my problems and my confusion related to the darkness. I've hurt so many great people because of who I am and my inability to experience what needs to be experienced. All I can say is that I tried to be honest with people about what I thought was true.
I've spent my life hurting people. Today will be the last time.
I've told different people a lot of things, but I've never told anyone about what happened to me, ever, for obvious reasons. It took me a while to realize that no matter how close you are to someone or how much they claim to love you, people simply cannot keep secrets. I learned this a few years ago when I thought I was gay and told people. The more harmful the secret, the juicier the gossip and the more likely you are to be betrayed. People don't care about their word or what they've promised, they just do whatever the **** they want and justify it later. It feels incredibly lonely to realize you can never share something with someone and have it be between just the two of you. I don't blame anyone in particular, I guess it's just how people are. Even if I felt like this is something I could have shared, I have no interest in being part of a friendship or relationship where the other person views me as the damaged and contaminated person that I am. So even if I were able to trust someone, I probably would not have told them about what happened to me. At this point I simply don't care who knows.
I feel an evil inside me. An evil that makes me want to end life. I need to stop this. I need to make sure I don't kill someone, which is not something that can be easily undone. I don't know if this is related to what happened to me or something different. I recognize the irony of killing myself to prevent myself from killing someone else, but this decision should indicate what I'm capable of.
So I've realized I will never escape the darkness or misery associated with it and I have a responsibility to stop myself from physically harming others.
I'm just a broken, miserable shell of a human being. Being molested has defined me as a person and shaped me as a human being and it has made me the monster I am and there's nothing I can do to escape it. I don't know any other existence. I don't know what life feels like where I'm apart from any of this. I actively despise the person I am. I just feel fundamentally broken, almost non-human. I feel like an animal that woke up one day in a human body, trying to make sense of a foreign world, living among creatures it doesn't understand and can't connect with.
I have accepted that the darkness will never allow me to be in a relationship. I will never go to sleep with someone in my arms, feeling the comfort of their hands around me. I will never know what uncontimated intimacy is like. I will never have an exclusive bond with someone, someone who can be the recipient of all the love I have to give. I will never have children, and I wanted to be a father so badly. I think I would have made a good dad. And even if I had fought through the darkness and married and had children all while being unable to feel intimacy, I could have never done that if suicide were a possibility. I did try to minimize pain, although I know that this decision will hurt many of you. If this hurts you, I hope that you can at least forget about me quickly.
There's no point in identifying who molested me, so I'm just going to leave it at that. I doubt the word of a dead guy with no evidence about something that happened over twenty years ago would have much sway.
You may wonder why I didn't just talk to a professional about this. I've seen a number of doctors since I was a teenager to talk about other issues and I'm positive that another doctor would not have helped. I was never given one piece of actionable advice, ever. More than a few spent a large part of the session reading their notes to remember who I was. And I have no interest in talking about being raped as a child, both because I know it wouldn't help and because I have no confidence it would remain secret. I know the legal and practical limits of doctor/patient confidentiality, growing up in a house where we'd hear stories about the various mental illnesses of famous people, stories that were passed down through generations. All it takes is one doctor who thinks my story is interesting enough to share or a doctor who thinks it's her right or responsibility to contact the authorities and have me identify the molestor (justifying her decision by telling herself that someone else might be in danger). All it takes is a single doctor who violates my trust, just like the "friends" who I told I was gay did, and everything would be made public and I'd be forced to live in a world where people would know how ****ed up I am. And yes, I realize this indicates that I have severe trust issues, but they're based on a large number of experiences with people who have shown a profound disrepect for their word and the privacy of others.
People say suicide is selfish. I think it's selfish to ask people to continue living painful and miserable lives, just so you possibly won't feel sad for a week or two. Suicide may be a permanent solution to a temporary problem, but it's also a permanent solution to a ~23 year-old problem that grows more intense and overwhelming every day.
Some people are just dealt bad hands in this life. I know many people have it worse than I do, and maybe I'm just not a strong person, but I really did try to deal with this. I've tried to deal with this every day for the last 23 years and I just can't ****ing take it anymore.
I often wonder what life must be like for other people. People who can feel the love from others and give it back unadulterated, people who can experience sex as an intimate and joyous experience, people who can experience the colors and happenings of this world without constant misery. I wonder who I'd be if things had been different or if I were a stronger person. It sounds pretty great.
I'm prepared for death. I'm prepared for the pain and I am ready to no longer exist. Thanks to the strictness of New Jersey gun laws this will probably be much more painful than it needs to be, but what can you do. My only fear at this point is messing something up and surviving.
—-
I'd also like to address my family, if you can call them that. I despise everything they stand for and I truly hate them, in a non-emotional, dispassionate and what I believe is a healthy way. The world will be a better place when they're dead—one with less hatred and intolerance.
If you're unfamiliar with the situation, my parents are fundamentalist Christians who kicked me out of their house and cut me off financially when I was 19 because I refused to attend seven hours of church a week.
They live in a black and white reality they've constructed for themselves. They partition the world into good and evil and survive by hating everything they fear or misunderstand and calling it love. They don't understand that good and decent people exist all around us, "saved" or not, and that evil and cruel people occupy a large percentage of their church. They take advantage of people looking for hope by teaching them to practice the same hatred they practice.
A random example:
"I am personally convinced that if a Muslim truly believes and obeys the Koran, he will be a terrorist." - George Zeller, August 24, 2010.
If you choose to follow a religion where, for example, devout Catholics who are trying to be good people are all going to Hell but child molestors go to Heaven (as long as they were "saved" at some point), that's your choice, but it's ****ed up. Maybe a God who operates by those rules does exist. If so, **** Him.
Their church was always more important than the members of their family and they happily sacrificed whatever necessary in order to satisfy their contrived beliefs about who they should be.
I grew up in a house where love was proxied through a God I could never believe in. A house where the love of music with any sort of a beat was literally beaten out of me. A house full of hatred and intolerance, run by two people who were experts at appearing kind and warm when others were around. Parents who tell an eight year old that his grandmother is going to Hell because she's Catholic. Parents who claim not to be racist but then talk about the horrors of miscegenation. I could list hundreds of other examples, but it's tiring.
Since being kicked out, I've interacted with them in relatively normal ways. I talk to them on the phone like nothing happened. I'm not sure why. Maybe because I like pretending I have a family. Maybe I like having people I can talk to about what's been going on in my life. Whatever the reason, it's not real and it feels like a sham. I should have never allowed this reconnection to happen.
I wrote the above a while ago, and I do feel like that much of the time. At other times, though, I feel less hateful. I know my parents honestly believe the crap they believe in. I know that my mom, at least, loved me very much and tried her best. One reason I put this off for so long is because I know how much pain it will cause her. She has been sad since she found out I wasn't "saved", since she believes I'm going to Hell, which is not a sadness for which I am responsible. That was never going to change, and presumably she believes the state of my physical body is much less important than the state of my soul. Still, I cannot intellectually justify this decision, knowing how much it will hurt her. Maybe my ability to take my own life, knowing how much pain it will cause, shows that I am a monster who doesn't deserve to live. All I know is that I can't deal with this pain any longer and I'm am truly sorry I couldn't wait until my family and everyone I knew died so this could be done without hurting anyone. For years I've wished that I'd be hit by a bus or die while saving a baby from drowning so my death might be more acceptable, but I was never so lucky.
—-
To those of you who have shown me love, thank you for putting up with all my ****tiness and moodiness and arbitrariness. I was never the person I wanted to be. Maybe without the darkness I would have been a better person, maybe not. I did try to be a good person, but I realize I never got very far.
I'm sorry for the pain this causes. I really do wish I had another option. I hope this letter explains why I needed to do this. If you can't understand this decision, I hope you can at least forgive me.
Bill Zeller
—-
Please save this letter and repost it if gets deleted. I don't want people to wonder why I did this. I disseminated it more widely than I might have otherwise because I'm worried that my family might try to restrict access to it. I don't mind if this letter is made public. In fact, I'd prefer it be made public to people being unable to read it and drawing their own conclusions.
Feel free to republish this letter, but only if it is reproduced in its entirety.
that's depressing, but it puts things in perspective. I read it all.
thanks.
--sent from my glacier.
Horrible that he got so constantly downed by his family and those around him that he never felt he could trust anyone enough to open up and tell what happened to him. I don 't know that he could have been helped because what he went through had to have been scarring beyond belief, but at least he may have had a chance.
At least the work he did left a positive impact on the world for a lot of people.
Is there a TL;DR version?
jaszek said:
Is there a TL;DR version?
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Skim it. Only version available, sorry.
Sent from my HTC Intruder
Bump. Definitely something worth reading.
This man needed Jesus so badly. It's heartbreaking to hear of things like this.
So I'm surprised there's not been threads like this already and I know this is a site about making your phones kewl.....but this is the dreaded off-topic area.....so I'm gonna allow it. :silly:
Has this apparent global pandemic affected you directly yet? I'm guessing it has hit us all in some way or another by now?
For me, we've been touched by it already and I suspect my family will get hit harder by it eventually. Here's how/why....
- The Wife is a nurse at a hospital and will surely been facing covid 19 face to face sooner than later. And unfortunately her hospital is a bit of a mess, so I suspect it will sweep through the place fast and furious and I can't imagine she will be unscathed. So yes, my home will likely host the Corona at some point.
- I'm in construction and deal with people daily, and so I am sure to come face to face with an infected person/people before too long. Hopefully my 20 times a day hand sanitizing will mean something?
- folks in my area have lost every last marble and are hoarding everything they can...leaving people in need SOL for finding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, bread, bottled water, meat, soup, baby food and just about every other essential item. Though...i find it funny. Cause if the poop really hits the fan... I know several hoarders that I'll be relieving of their supplies all within walking distance. Lol
- My wife will likely have to nurse through the worst of times, should they come....cause that's what she signed on for. But me, I'll just be told to stay home, earning exactly zero dollars an hour and probably digging a financial hole we will find extremely hard to crawl out of.
- its March break here, so my wee ones are at home. Plus the school board here has said school will remain closed 2 more weeks after March break....so that is good. The kids get to stay home and stay away from the other little germ magnets they associate with!
Anyway....that is how this pandemic has and could hit my family. I'll just say this....before you contribute to cleaning stores out of essential items...take a second to think about others and maybe just get what you need for now and leave some for the rest of us. :good:
Edit: To the amazing super awesome moderators of this great site...if you're maybe thinking this topic isn't right for this site and about to click the delete or close button....perhaps reconsider and think that some here may wanna share feelings on this topic anonymously so to speak...and maybe share fears or hopes they have with the faceless here...rather than "real" people in their lives that don't need to hear about their insecurities? For me, I know I put on a brave face in person....but I'm scared a little too....but I want my family feeling confidence, so I don't dwell on these things I've said with them. Thanks my Mod friends!
thread allowed!
May Force be with you and keeps you strong to fight the Darkside of this virus!
Deaddpool said:
So I'm surprised there's not been threads like this already and I know this is a site about making your phones kewl.....but this is the dreaded off-topic area.....so I'm gonna allow it. :silly:
Has this apparent global pandemic affected you directly yet? I'm guessing it has hit us all in some way or another by now?
For me, we've been touched by it already and I suspect my family will get hit harder by it eventually. Here's how/why....
- The Wife is a nurse at a hospital and will surely been facing covid 19 face to face sooner than later. And unfortunately her hospital is a bit of a mess, so I suspect it will sweep through the place fast and furious and I can't imagine she will be unscathed. So yes, my home will likely host the Corona at some point.
- I'm in construction and deal with people daily, and so I am sure to come face to face with an infected person/people before too long. Hopefully my 20 times a day hand sanitizing will mean something?
- folks in my area have lost every last marble and are hoarding everything they can...leaving people in need SOL for finding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, bread, bottled water, meat, soup, baby food and just about every other essential item. Though...i find it funny. Cause if the poop really hits the fan... I know several hoarders that I'll be relieving of their supplies all within walking distance. Lol
- My wife will likely have to nurse through the worst of times, should they come....cause that's what she signed on for. But me, I'll just be told to stay home, earning exactly zero dollars an hour and probably digging a financial hole we will find extremely hard to crawl out of.
- its March break here, so my wee ones are at home. Plus the school board here has said school will remain closed 2 more weeks after March break....so that is good. The kids get to stay home and stay away from the other little germ magnets they associate with!
Anyway....that is how this pandemic has and could hit my family. I'll just say this....before you contribute to cleaning stores out of essential items...take a second to think about others and maybe just get what you need for now and leave some for the rest of us. :good:
Edit: To the amazing super awesome moderators of this great site...if you're maybe thinking this topic isn't right for this site and about to click the delete or close button....perhaps reconsider and think that some here may wanna share feelings on this topic anonymously so to speak...and maybe share fears or hopes they have with the faceless here...rather than "real" people in their lives that don't need to hear about their insecurities? For me, I know I put on a brave face in person....but I'm scared a little too....but I want my family feeling confidence, so I don't dwell on these things I've said with them. Thanks my Mod friends!
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Like you said it’s off topic so I’ll allow it I mean wouldn’t you have? I’d bet so.
Anyways, Mike our Virologist friend taught me a lot about viruses over the years and I would say you should definitely be worried. I am and I’m still kinda young. I would worry more about being near someone infected that’s asymptomatic or even just sick more so than touching something that has it. You’re more likely to breath it being near someone rather than touch something with a live virus and have it enter your body that way.
Not sure what’s going on up north but down here in the south states and cities are taking drastic steps in hopes to contain everything. I pray that it gets contained otherwise this is just the beginning and lots of people won’t make it world wide. Hope you are well and stay healthy also bless your wife for what she does and what’s likely coming down the road. People like her in those professions need to be praised ?
They've closed the liquor stores in my state...
This is getting serious now.
Deaddpool said:
Has this apparent global pandemic affected you directly yet? I'm guessing it has hit us all in some way or another by now?
Click to expand...
Click to collapse
Yes. My work place will be closed very soon, as they've announced yesterday that public life will be limited. I have other work I can do and the government will financially support affected businesses, so I'm not too worried. However, the signs for the pandemic were already there months ago and my government hasn't done anything to fight it until just recently, so I am not at all happy about how they are governing.
Yep, my plans for buying a new vehicle will probably have to be put on hold. The money that I've saved for a down payment will have to be reserved for the economic woes ahead.
Cash is king
The spread of the epidemic has crippled my plans to buy a house. I need to deposit more cash in my hand. Cash is king.
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@Deaddpool
Keep us updated will ya? Things are crazy here where I live.
I'm in the US. The only thing that concerns me is being able to find diapers and TP when I need it because of all the hoarding people are doing. Barring that, my level of concern here in the states is a solid zero.
I really love math and when you plug in the death toll vs the infection count, it's probably less dangerous than the flu. Obviously other countries will end up with different results. This is just using info for the US, so keep that in mind.
The most recent numbers I can find are,
Infections: 9,486
Deaths: 155
When you plug this into a calculator, I'll admit it looks kinda bad.
155 x 100 ÷ 9,486 = 1.63% ← This is the perceived death rate here.
And here's why it's nothing to panic over. Most people with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, simply won't be tested (unless they die), so the actual number of infections is definitely much higher. How high is it? We don't know exactly, but the estimates I've seen range from 200,000 to 500,000 infections . So let's use those numbers and see how bad the estimates are.
155 x 100 ÷ 200,000 = 0.07% ← This is our high end for the estimated death rate. Far lower than the flu or common cold.
And as the estimated number of infections goes up, the death rate drops accordingly. If 500,000 people are actually infected, then the death rate is way smaller.
155 x 100 ÷ 500,000 = 0.03% ← This is our low end estimate.
If you don't have a chronic health condition, or you're not over 60yrs old, then you really don't have much to worry about in my opinion. Wash your hands a bit more, avoid at risk people when going about your day if possible. Don't lose your head in the process. 99% of confirmed cases have been mild thus far. (Symptoms no worse than a cold, or allergies.)
It is interesting question now...it is a big problem
Belgium here and we're on what they call a Lockdown light. We can only go outside to:
Go to work (if it's essential. when possible to work from home, it's obligatory)
Go to the store
Get money from an ATM
Go to the doctor
Help vulnerable people
Get some exercise like running, cycling, etc. (alone, with family members or with one friend if a distance of 1.5m is respected at all times)
All shops are closed, except:
Food stores, including night shops
Shops that sell mainly animal food
Pharmacies
News paper shops
Gas stations
Hair dressers (max of 1 customer at a time)
Conditions shops need to adhere to:
Social Distancing: people need to stay 1.5m apart from each other
In supermarkets there can only be 1 customer per 10m² and they can only be present for 30 minutes
Food stores can be open from 7AM to 10PM
Night shops must close at 10PM
Misc:
All bars/restaurants/etc. are closed, take-away is still allowed unless it causes large cues
Local markets are forbidden unless they are essential for food supply
Hotels can still be open but may not provide access to a bar or any other space that brings people together
Schools are open but only for day care (focused for people working in health care), no lessons are given
...
Confirmed: 1,795
Deaths: 21
Recovered: 31
It's been pretty crazy but manageable so far. The inexplicable rush for toilet paper has been a big deal here as well. What is up with that? They can starve to death but really need to be able to wipe their tushie for the next 6 months? lol. It all feels so unreal. It's like we've entered World War 3 but we're all fighting a common but invisible enemy.
I went out on a run yesterday and there were still quite a few people out and about getting some exercise or simply some fresh air. There was a massive amount of respect, honoring the social distancing and noticed that the younger folk always went out of the way for the elderly.
My wife works for the 112 emergency central and it's been true madness up there at times. I heard of 1.000 seconds of waiting time on the 'doctors on duty' weekend lines.
@Deaddpool Give my best to your wife as I have the utmost respect for everyone working in health care these days. Now more than ever, they are the true heroes of the world! Wishing the best for you and your family.
Spaceminer said:
I'm in the US. The only thing that concerns me is being able to find diapers and TP when I need it because of all the hoarding people are doing. Barring that, my level of concern here in the states is a solid zero.
I really love math and when you plug in the death toll vs the infection count, it's probably less dangerous than the flu. Obviously other countries will end up with different results. This is just using info for the US, so keep that in mind.
The most recent numbers I can find are,
Infections: 9,486
Deaths: 155
When you plug this into a calculator, I'll admit it looks kinda bad.
155 x 100 ÷ 9,486 = 1.63% ← This is the perceived death rate here.
And here's why it's nothing to panic over. Most people with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, simply won't be tested (unless they die), so the actual number of infections is definitely much higher. How high is it? We don't know exactly, but the estimates I've seen range from 200,000 to 500,000 infections . So let's use those numbers and see how bad the estimates are.
155 x 100 ÷ 200,000 = 0.07% ← This is our high end for the estimated death rate. Far lower than the flu or common cold.
And as the estimated number of infections goes up, the death rate drops accordingly. If 500,000 people are actually infected, then the death rate is way smaller.
155 x 100 ÷ 500,000 = 0.03% ← This is our low end estimate.
If you don't have a chronic health condition, or you're not over 60yrs old, then you really don't have much to worry about in my opinion. Wash your hands a bit more, avoid at risk people when going about your day if possible. Don't lose your head in the process. 99% of confirmed cases have been mild thus far. (Symptoms no worse than a cold, or allergies.)
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The problem is your math is very flawed which is surprising from someone that claims to know math the way that you do. But it is also a common mistake from many that haven't taken the time and done enough research to properly construct an accurate math projection. I am not saying any of this to pick on you but rather to educate you.
I pay very close attention to the news about the virus and yes, there are definitely a significant amount of cases we don't know about, which is primarily due to lack of testing, but official estimates are nowhere the numbers you have above.
As of writing this, the US has 11,689 and rising by the hour. That doesn't seem like very many but just 10 days ago we had about 680 cases. Every 2.5 cases rise exponentially. That means in 2 weeks' time (assuming current trends continue) the US will have around 67,000 known cases. and in 3 weeks 100,800 and these are extremely conservative numbers due to the number of different cities and states seeing outbreaks simultaneously. We are prob looking at 250,000 to 500,000 infection in a month's time unless quarantine efforts begin to flatten the curve. The reason this happens is that 1 people think like you and don't take it seriously and 2 people spread the virus unknowingly due to mild or no symptoms.
Another reason your math is flawed is the average time from first symptoms to death is roughly 14 days and up to 28 days. Therefore comparing the current number of deaths to the current cases amount is an extremely inaccurate way to get a perceived death rate. Official estimates are around a 3.5% death rate but it is very hard to know for sure just like you said above. If you look at Italy, their death rate is around 7% currently and they have one of the best health systems in the world. I read a report today, that doctors at one hospital stopped counting the dead bodies.
Italy is a peek into the future if people in the States don't take this seriously. About 1 in 20 cases, no matter your age, and 1-10 or less for older folk develop serious to critical symptoms. Under normal circumstances, those cases should all be cured but they do take around a month to fully heal. The problem that we will face very soon is health systems being overrun just like they are in Italy. Italy doctors are having to choose who lives and dies via triage protocols. While it is true the older you are the worse it can be, but that doesn't mean younger people are not at risk. France as of about 5 days ago had 300 critical cases for people under the age of 60. I am sure that number has since risen just like every other number. So in a month and a half's time, we are looking at 25 to 50 thousand ICU cases or roughly 50% of capacity if it was even distributed (which it won't be).
The 2 biggest problems the US is facing right now is denial and a bunch of people thinking they are smarter than the professionals. Let's put it this way...
The CDC estimates somewhere between 200,000 and 2.1 million dead with 500,000 being the most probable by the time this is over. That is assuming containment efforts fail of course. This means you WILL know people who have died as our morgues fill up. To put this in perspective, 30,000 people died in the US last year from the flu. But hey, you're good at math so you know better than the virologists and epidemiologists even though you seemed to fail to understand exponential math while doing your calculations.
Oh, and uh, by the way, currently younger people have a large portion of ICU cases from the coronavirus in the US
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...zations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/
mark manning said:
(...) The 2 biggest problems the US is facing right now is denial and a bunch of people thinking they are smarter than the professionals. (...)
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IKR! The ignorance and dismissal I see in so many people is just baffling. I've had a few arguments with people that have a more "liberal view" on the regulations our government wants us to follow. I believe the main issue is that many people refuse to believe problems if they can't see or experience them properly. It's sad to realize that for many people this will only become a real problem when a loved one dies. At that point it's likely far too late to start taking it seriously.
By the way, if we do the aforementioned math on mainland China we get ((3,249 * 100) / 81,155) 4% and it's not over just yet...
@mark manning
I explicitly stated the numbers were for the US and that other countries will have different results. Some countries are definitely much worse than others. At the time of writing that, those were the numbers available. They get updated daily here. When I used estimates, I also explicitly stated that they were just that, estimates. My math with the numbers I had at the time is perfectly correct. Using the numbers they updated with today, it puts the death rate 1.33% here, which is lower than yesterday. I am again, speaking only of the US in the above statement. I used John's Hopkins data tracker for my math. Which includes reports from the CDC, the WHO, and our state/local health departments. There were 13,159 confirmed cases in the US at the time of writing this, and 176 deaths.
Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
So, sh!t just got more real here.
The governor of my state just ordered all non life sustaining businesses to be shut down effective immediately.
https://www.wgal.com/article/all-no...locations-to-stop-coronavirus-spread/31789626
Unfortunately, my place of employment is considered non life sustaining. So after tomorrow, I'm laid off.
This is like a bad dream I can't wake up from. We are witnessing history unfold before our very eyes.
I wish you all the best and may you and your families be safe.
Spaceminer said:
@mark manning
I explicitly stated the numbers were for the US and that other countries will have different results. Some countries are definitely much worse than others. At the time of writing that, those were the numbers available. They get updated daily here. When I used estimates, I also explicitly stated that they were just that, estimates. My math with the numbers I had at the time is perfectly correct. Using the numbers they updated with today, it puts the death rate 1.33% here, which is lower than yesterday. I am again, speaking only of the US in the above statement. I used John's Hopkins data tracker for my math. Which includes reports from the CDC, the WHO, and our state/local health departments. There were 13,159 confirmed cases in the US at the time of writing this, and 176 deaths.
Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Well again, the time from first symptoms to death is on average 14 days
Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R
And you can see that 14 days ago the US had 138 cases in total.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I understand how you are calculating your numbers but you aren't taking in to account the time span of the COVID-19 disease that the SARS-CoV-2 virus creates. There is more to it than calculating cases vs deaths especially when the disease plays out over weeks to a month or so and that the vast majority of US cases have come in the past few days.
Okay so instead of manipulating mathematical statistics to support a particular point of view, let's ask this question:
In Korea where we've seen the most drastic measures taken to date, how many people have actually died there?
Compare that to Korea's population and perhaps we can get a better understanding of actual/realistic statistics.
TravisBean said:
Okay so instead of manipulating mathematical statistics to support a particular point of view, let's ask this question:
In Korea where we've seen the most drastic measures taken to date, how many people have actually died there?
Compare that to Korea's population and perhaps we can get a better understanding of actual/realistic statistics.
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Sure but the problem is Korea only has 9,000 cases which the US surpassed just yesterday and fewer than half the deaths the US already has. The best numbers to look at statistically speaking are the Chinese numbers and their death rate was 3.5% roughly and based on the insane testing they put their citizens through in order to combat the outbreak, they are likely very accurately now that everything has subsided there. The next most inflicted country will be Italy and theirs is 7%. In about 2 or 3 days' time, the US will be the 3rd highest country in terms of infection numbers. We won't know what our numbers are going to be like for a while but one thing is for sure, they won't be like Korea's
Deaddpool said:
So I'm surprised there's not been threads like this already and I know this is a site about making your phones kewl.....but this is the dreaded off-topic area.....so I'm gonna allow it. :silly:
Has this apparent global pandemic affected you directly yet? I'm guessing it has hit us all in some way or another by now?
For me, we've been touched by it already and I suspect my family will get hit harder by it eventually. Here's how/why....
- The Wife is a nurse at a hospital and will surely been facing covid 19 face to face sooner than later. And unfortunately her hospital is a bit of a mess, so I suspect it will sweep through the place fast and furious and I can't imagine she will be unscathed. So yes, my home will likely host the Corona at some point.
- I'm in construction and deal with people daily, and so I am sure to come face to face with an infected person/people before too long. Hopefully my 20 times a day hand sanitizing will mean something?
- folks in my area have lost every last marble and are hoarding everything they can...leaving people in need SOL for finding toilet paper, hand sanitizer, bread, bottled water, meat, soup, baby food and just about every other essential item. Though...i find it funny. Cause if the poop really hits the fan... I know several hoarders that I'll be relieving of their supplies all within walking distance. Lol
- My wife will likely have to nurse through the worst of times, should they come....cause that's what she signed on for. But me, I'll just be told to stay home, earning exactly zero dollars an hour and probably digging a financial hole we will find extremely hard to crawl out of.
- its March break here, so my wee ones are at home. Plus the school board here has said school will remain closed 2 more weeks after March break....so that is good. The kids get to stay home and stay away from the other little germ magnets they associate with!
Anyway....that is how this pandemic has and could hit my family. I'll just say this....before you contribute to cleaning stores out of essential items...take a second to think about others and maybe just get what you need for now and leave some for the rest of us. :good:
Edit: To the amazing super awesome moderators of this great site...if you're maybe thinking this topic isn't right for this site and about to click the delete or close button....perhaps reconsider and think that some here may wanna share feelings on this topic anonymously so to speak...and maybe share fears or hopes they have with the faceless here...rather than "real" people in their lives that don't need to hear about their insecurities? For me, I know I put on a brave face in person....but I'm scared a little too....but I want my family feeling confidence, so I don't dwell on these things I've said with them. Thanks my Mod friends!
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Hey man! I’m interested to know how y’all fair through this for sure. It’s true that the impact is felt everywhere and certainly in more areas than others. We will get through it though
Overseas whispers of today will be the nightmares of tomorrow
I hope it's not too intrusive of me to ask, I was just wondering because I know I'm not the only one on here that's medicating.
I take Wellbutrin XL and Abilify.
Abilify? You know that's in the Halidol family?
Unless you're schizophrenic don't use that junk!
That group of drugs is known to cause permanent neurological motor damage in some patients. That's not an exaggeration.
Nicotine is a better drug... cigars are delicious.
blackhawk said:
Abilify? You know that's in the Halidol family?
Unless you're schizophrenic don't use that junk!
That group of drugs is known to cause permanent neurological motor damage in some patients. That's not an exaggeration.
Nicotine is a better drug... cigars are delicious.
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They're both anti-psychotics, but Abilify is an atypical anti-psychotic while Haldol is a typical anti-psychotic. I can't, from the top of my head, tell you what the key differences are, but I just know Abilify has less side effects than Haldol does. I actually wanted to switch to Haldol months ago, but my prescriber couldn't prescribe me Haldol.
I am diagnosed with schizoaffective disorder, depressive type. Being on anti-psychotics helps me feel "normal" again — I stupidly got off of my anti-psychotics for several months, and have just started taking them again.
If you don't have auditory hallucinations ie talking voices I ditch that class of drugs. In my wayward youth I tried Halidol, big mistake. One of the worst drugs I ever sampled.
Beware if you begin getting neck aches, stop taking it immediately. It's just god awful stuff if you don't -really- need it. They cross prescribe Abilify for depression which is reckless even advertised it for that.
Get your doctor onboard or find one that will listen to you. Again nicotine may be better with less side effects.
I'd take Provigil over Wellbutrin without thinking twice. Provigil is a fascinating drug, nearly transparent with almost no side effects. It's a mild antidepressant and it makes everything more interesting, colors look more intense and so on. It's a stimulant but doesn't raise your heartrate or bp. It will keep you effortlessly awake if taken when you should be asleep but if you wish to go to sleep you can.
Use only this derivative though as the later versions suck; Newvilgil feels like you drank way too much coffee.
blackhawk said:
If you don't have auditory hallucinations ie talking voices I ditch that class of drugs. In my wayward youth I tried Halidol, big mistake. One of the worst drugs I ever sampled.
Beware if you begin getting neck aches, stop taking it immediately. It's just god awful stuff if you don't -really- need it. They cross prescribe Abilify for depression which is reckless even advertised it for that.
Get your doctor onboard or find one that will listen to you. Again nicotine may be better with less side effects.
I'd take Provigil over Wellbutrin without thinking twice. Provigil is a fascinating drug, nearly transparent with almost no side effects. It's a mild antidepressant and it makes everything more interesting, colors look more intense and so on. It's a stimulant but doesn't raise your heartrate or bp. It will keep you effortlessly awake if taken when you should be asleep but if you wish to go to sleep you can.
Use only this derivative though as the later versions suck; Newvilgil feels like you drank way too much coffee.
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I have auditory hallucinations, as well as other types, but my biggest issue are the delusions. I'm sorry that you had a bad experience with Haldol. I've personally never really experienced any significant or major side effects with Abilify — tremors and lethargy were the two main issues, but they disappear over time.
I do think it's extremely irresponsible to use anti-psychotics for mood disorders (besides mood disorders with psychotic features) or even personality disorders when there are better medications they can prescribe that would work so much better, but because everything helpful is now scheduled, they shove bullsh*t drugs into people's mouths to "test them out first." I've been prescribed 15 different psychiatric medications, 24 different times, and 8/15 of those medications didn't work for me.
Psychotic disorders are serious illnesses, and more-so than not, people suffering from psychotic disorders or psychotic features tend to have a better quality of life when on anti-psychotics. I know a lot of people whose lives are unmanageable without the use of medications, and I know that I function much, much better when I'm medicating. I use nicotine as well, but nicotine isn't going to stop my persecutory delusions and apophenia.
I do agree with you, though — stimulants are amazing, but so is Wellbutrin (for me). Almost a decade of severe depression, and the only thing that has worked for me has been Wellbutrin. We just have different views because we've had different experiences and impairments.
I hear you. Rock and a hard place. Go with the lowest effective dose. After over 50 years you think they have something better.
One thing I can tell you is avoid alcohol; it will make things worse invariably over time if abused or if you're intolerant to it.
blackhawk said:
I hear you. Rock and a hard place. Go with the lowest effective dose. After over 50 years you think they have something better.
One thing I can tell you is avoid alcohol; it will make things worse invariably over time if abused or if you're intolerant to it.
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Yup, that's what I'm on. Too high of a dose made me useless — I couldn't function at all because I was always so tired.
And yeah, I'm not a big drinker, anyway.
None, and I've never did in my 66 years of life.
I take a dose of XDA in the morning and another half dose at evening. Other than that I have never took not even an aspirin and i hope i will never need any...
Rotting Brain said:
Yup, that's what I'm on. Too high of a dose made me useless — I couldn't function at all because I was always so tired.
And yeah, I'm not a big drinker, anyway.
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It's known for that. Use the minimum effective amount. Split pills if needed.
Halidol made me feel like I was in White Zombie.
Lol, be careful when sampling other people's meds kiddies...
Once tried some heart medication too, that was even less fun but stimulating
orb_selektor said:
I take a dose of XDA in the morning and another half dose at evening. Other than that I have never took not even an aspirin and i hope i will never need any...
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XDA Developers is pretty damn addictive, to be honest. [Just pretend like there's a laughing emoji here — I forgot how to add emoticons.]
blackhawk said:
It's known for that. Use the minimum effective amount. Split pills if needed.
Halidol made me feel like I was in White Zombie.
Lol, be careful when sampling other people's meds kiddies...
Once tried some heart medication too, that was even less fun but stimulating
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Yeah, it sucks that a lot of psychiatric medications has the side effect of lethargy. I'm on 10 MG of Abilify now, and while there's a bit of tiredness, it's not as bad as when I was on 15 MG. I kid you not, I would sleep up to 16 hours a day, and spend like 4 hours just trying to wake up.
Haha, did you use the heart medications with a recreational intent?
I don't take any of this. But I do have friends that are on all sorts of stuff.
I'm just happy that people can discuss this all openly now.
Now if they only invent a non-addictive sleeping pill that lets you jump out of bed in the morning I wouldn't have to be typing this at 2:30 AM.
Renate said:
Now if they only invent a non-addictive sleeping pill that lets you jump out of bed in the morning I wouldn't have to be typing this at 2:30 AM.
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Provigil is the one that you wanted... you can take it dead tired and effortlessly stay awake.
No jitters, just rested alertness plus. Even restores eye/hand reaction times. The kicker is after an hour or two if you got done what you wanted you can go into a normal sleep. One of the strangest drugs I've ever used. I experienced no side effects.
My experience is typical of its users.
Rotting Brain said:
Yeah, it sucks that a lot of psychiatric medications has the side effect of lethargy. I'm on 10 MG of Abilify now, and while there's a bit of tiredness, it's not as bad as when I was on 15 MG. I kid you not, I would sleep up to 16 hours a day, and spend like 4 hours just trying to wake up.
Haha, did you use the heart medications with a recreational intent?
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Try 5 or 7.5mg Use to minimum dose that works. Over time you may need to adjust it up or down slightly.
Again nicotine helps with reasoning and productivity. Depending on dosage it and independently, it calms and stimulates. Probably better in tobacco though as the other organic compounds modify it's effects.
Tobacco is also a anti inflammatory. Since I started smoking cigars I don't get tendonitis anymore. Of coarse it has it's down sides including relaxing the esophageal sphincter muscle, bad if you have a hiatal hernia, but otherwise calms the GI tract. As for cancer, best to not inhale the smoke or chew it excessively.
Tobacco has been given a bad name but there are good medicinal reasons it's been used for over a millennium. Exponentially better than coffee to keep you awake, it's saved my life more then once. A good cigar triggers memories from long ago you thought you had forgotten. Quite relaxing and pleasant.
It is also quite addictive especially if used before the brain matures which is in the late 20's perhaps 30's.
Long story but it was in with a box with pot, valium and such. So naturally I assumed it had to be something fun. The label wasn't clear to it's use giving the name and dosage instructions. Of course I took twice as much as indicated, adolescent SOP. It wasn't until latter (with heart fluttering) that I looked it up in Merck's Index. I quickly understood the error of my ways...
blackhawk said:
You can take it dead tired and effortlessly stay awake.
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But I can stay effortlessly awake, I just think of something that happened 20 years ago or what I'm going to code tomorrow or what's for lunch or ...
Full strength cigars keep the killer bunnies indolent for me.